A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
